‘Bitter medicine’: Why some EU officials quietly yearn for Trump

BRUSSELS — Here’s a dirty little secret about the U.S. presidential election: Some European officials think a victory by former President Donald Trump could be what the European Union needs to muscle up on defense and get tough on China.
“The return of Trump would be a beneficial shock that will enable the EU to move forward, like the pandemic or the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine,” said one senior EU diplomat who, like others quoted in this article, was granted anonymity to speak freely.
This view, shared confidentially by several EU diplomats and EU officials, doesn’t stem from affection for the Republican candidate or his policy proposals. 
Nevertheless, a second Trump term would administer the “bitter medicine” a fractious EU needs to overcome its divisions and move forward as a bloc, six EU diplomats and officials conveyed to POLITICO.
A Trump presidency would be so hostile to Europe, the thinking goes, that the bloc would have no choice but to bolster its defense spending, beef up its tech sector and clarify its China policy, they added. Still, officials say they have painful memories of Trump’s first term when he berated leaders, called Brussels a “hellhole,” and unleashed a trade war on the bloc.
EU officials and leaders don’t typically comment on the record about foreign elections. When they do, it’s to say something along the lines that Europe needs to be prepared for any scenario — whether that be a victory by Trump or by Democrat candidate Kamala Harris.
In conversations with POLITICO, EU officials and diplomats didn’t so much indicate their political preferences as an analysis of how a change of leadership in the White House could spur policy changes in Europe. 
From Ukraine to defense and to Europe’s fight against economic decline, a Trump victory could have seismic effects on the bloc’s future. For some Europeans, such changes could be positive.
The most obvious area where a Trump presidency could spur change in Europe is on defense and the war in Ukraine. The ex-president isn’t shy about accusing Europe of freeloading on U.S. military protection via NATO, and he has reportedly threatened to yank Washington out of the alliance completely. 
As for Russia’s war on Ukraine, Trump has said he’d end the conflict the day after his reelection — presumably without Kyiv’s consent. If he returns to the White House, a Trump administration could increase pressure on Europe over “burden sharing” beyond anything seen since the alliance’s founding in 1949.
That’s perfect, these officials contend.
“Trump helps raise awareness on defense financing, but we need a real shock effect to change this debate,” said one EU official. “A deal on a peace plan for Ukraine would shake it up completely.” 
One of the EU diplomats added: “In this atmosphere, where sometimes it looks like we’re on the verge of WW III, [Trump] seems more averse to wars.”
Or take the issue of financing weapons for Ukraine. A group of EU countries currently wants to borrow money jointly (by raising “eurobonds”) to increase the overall funds available to Kyiv. But the move is opposed by “frugal” states such as Germany and the Netherlands, among others.
Those pushing for defense eurobonds hope that a second Trump term as president could galvanize these countries, much as the pandemic did — and push them to accept joint borrowing. Conversely, a Harris victory “would give further ammunition to those who oppose the idea to say that [joint borrowing] is dead,” one EU diplomat said.
A similar logic applies to Europe’s long-stalled attempts to harmonize its single market and jumpstart its anemic economy.
In a landmark report published last month, ex-European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi warned that Europe was at risk of terminal economic decline. To avoid falling further behind the U.S. and China, he argued, the bloc needed to unify its markets and invest massively in industrial capacity.
But reforms to harmonize the EU market, notably its financial sector, have never advanced far despite a decade of deliberations.
Another Trump term could prove the catalyst that forces reluctant countries to finally accept common oversight of their banks and stock markets, these officials argue.
“How do you get from reading the Draghi report to implementing the Draghi report? That’s where Trump could push things in a certain direction,” one of the officials said, referencing a 2024 report on European competitiveness and the future of the EU by former Italian PM Mario Draghi. 
On trade, a Trump return could equally be a driver of change, moving the bloc toward a more protectionist approach that the French have advocated.  
Last year, concern about Trump’s potential return to the White House this November prompted Brussels and Washington to solve a longstanding transatlantic dispute over steel and aluminum tariffs that dated back to Trump’s first term. Those efforts led nowhere, with the two sides failing to find common ground and distracted by the war between Israel and Hamas.
Brussels has committed to shelve its retaliatory tariffs until March 2025 — just two months after the next U.S. president is sworn in. The EU wants to avoid an all-out trade war with the U.S., but is better prepared this time around to hit back against Washington if needed. 
Meanwhile, on climate, Europe, the U.S. and like-minded governments are racing to secure their global climate strategy against a potential rollback under Trump. 
Overall, Brussels is better prepared this time around, several EU officials said.
In 2016, Trump’s victory and its consequences for transatlantic relations came as a massive surprise. European leaders now think they have a better idea of what’s coming, and are preparing for the fallout. 
Another constituency quietly unopposed to Trump’s return: China hawks.
It was pressure from the Trump administration, after all, that led several European countries to abandon contracts with Chinese telecom giant Huawei amid cybersecurity concerns flagged by the U.S.
Germany, in particular, has avoided confrontation with China over Huawei due to fears that Beijing could retaliate against its automobile industry. The country agreed to exclude Huawei from its networks earlier this year, but pushed the execution day back further than expected.
During Joe Biden’s current presidency, Washington’s tone toward Europe has been more conciliatory. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Europe in 2021 that the U.S. “won’t force our allies into a ‘us or them’ choice with China.” 
Under Trump, that conciliatory approach could change 180 degrees — a boon for China hawks.
“[European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen clearly wants a tougher approach to China but she faces resistance from hesitant member states, primarily Germany,” said one senior EU official. “A little push from another Trump administration would help her rather than harm her.”
As the Nov. 5 election draws near, don’t expect European officials to voice these views in public. Trump is deeply unpopular in most of Europe, and there are few political points to score from embracing him. 
But officials have said it might be time to embrace autonomy, suggesting that Europe should prepare for a big change in EU-U.S. relations, no matter who is elected.
“Europeans must take their destiny into their own hands, regardless of who is elected U.S. president,” French Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad said on French TV last week.